Note from the editor: Jiang Feng wrote this opinion piece for Voice of America. The opinions expressed in this guest essay are not those of Voice of America. Please note that you are from Voice of America by using the abbreviation.

Although the "dynamic zeroing" policy has ended after several months, it seems that China is still far from getting out of the three-year epidemic isolation and isolation. The balloon incident that happened at this time caused a sensation throughout the United States, and the public's reaction was almost comparable to that of the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis. Overnight, this high-altitude weather balloon turned into a political weather balloon, sending a clear signal to the world that Sino-US relations are once again in crisis.

As a result, at least so far, the scheduled visit to China by the US Secretary of State has been postponed, and the telephone conversation between the Chinese and US defense ministers has also been canceled.

If you compare the ice-breaking Sino-US relations opened by the US table tennis team’s visit to China fifty years ago in April 1971, it is also a diplomatic action that China’s diplomacy has always been proud of. Today's balloon incident was taken to the other extreme, reminding the American people of the incendiary-laden Japanese balloons that threatened the continental United States during the Pacific War. This may also be a symbolic watershed for the already fragile Sino-US relationship.

Comparing the negative impact of the balloon incident on Sino-US relations, before and after the balloon incident, China's diplomatic response is more like a disaster. They seem to have not yet gotten out of the three-year epidemic, and continue to be trapped in the dynamic reset and closed-door policy during the epidemic. . For example, a week before Secretary of State Blink en's scheduled visit to China, the People's Daily published three consecutive official commentary articles from February 1st to 3rd, signed by "The Bell", that is, the CCP's Propaganda Department. The foreign tribute of the dynasty.

However, after the balloon incident was fermented, the arrogance of the foreign affairs department remained consistent. They didn't care about the balloon's violation of the US airspace and stimulated the painful memories of the American people. They even pretended not to care about the impact of the balloon incident on Blinken's visit to China. Continue to reinforce the serious consequences of this unexpected event.

However, the other side of the truth is that the importance of Blinken’s visit to China, which was originally scheduled to depart on February 4, cannot be overstated. This is the first visit to China, but a visit that can no longer be delayed when Sino-US relations are in a serious crisis, that is, a visit to "build guardrails" that the US has always emphasized to prevent Sino-US relations from further deteriorating.

For China, the significance is more than that. With Blinken's visit to China, the CCP will be able to calibrate the uncertain Sino-US relations in the next five years after the 20th National Congress. It will successively launch dialogues at all levels and resume Sino-US exchanges On the diplomatic level of China-U.S. relations, we can truly get out of the closed-door policy and diplomatic isolation of the past three years—that is not roundabout diplomacy. of.

In other words, the intrusion of a high-altitude balloon with an unknown purpose has disrupted the face-to-face diplomacy between China and the United States, and has also greatly interfered with the restoration and development of future Sino-US relations. This incident itself shows the uncertainty and danger of Sino-US relations. The nearly out-of-control and panic-stricken performance of China's diplomatic system in the balloon incident has largely inherited the wolf-warrior diplomacy model that started three years or even earlier during the epidemic, that is, consistent toughness and blindness, just like the spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. attitude, always unwilling to face the problem itself and the doubts of the international community.

In this sense, although the Chinese people after the Spring Festival seem to have completely forgotten the three-year disaster of the epidemic and are slowly recovering from the pain of the new crown, China’s bureaucratic system and diplomatic institutions are still in a dynamic self-isolation. In this model, China refuses to truly openly face the international community, and sits and waits for the deterioration of Sino-US relations as if they are collectively lying flat.

Perhaps it is for this reason that the balloon incident happened. In other words, just as at the beginning of the outbreak of the new crown, the Chinese government almost instinctively chose the internal isolation of the national martial law model, and competed with the open system of the international community with the clearing under the closed system. This internal isolation, mutual blockade, and lack of The pattern of communication and hostility to the West is also prevalent within the CCP system, especially the lack of effective communication and coordination mechanisms among the diplomatic, military, and security departments. The problem is that after the top management has concentrated all the decision-making power, it has to face the internal challenges and tremendous pressure caused by the fierce competition for loyalty and mutual isolation within the system. No matter what kind of internal revolution is carried out, it is difficult to solve it.

In fact, this was the case with the outbreak of the new crown epidemic three years ago, and the deception by the Russian wolf warriors at the Winter Olympics a year ago, and the same is true of the balloon crisis today. What the outside world sees through the balloon is the rigidity, clumsiness and loss of control within the Chinese ruling system, which itself is the mechanism for disasters. This system is dealing with endless local and occasional problems every day, and these problems are always possible to break through, and as the system is continuously enlarged, upgraded, and finally out of control, it evolves into crises and disasters, constantly creating a highly institutionalized uncertainty. sex.

This has been fully exposed during the three-year dynamic clearing and sudden end of the COVID-19 epidemic, and it has also been hit by the Internet industry, civil society, public relations media, and the private economy in the past ten years, as well as the recent real estate industry, education and training Industry and other industrial turmoil has been repeatedly verified. In this sense, it is not surprising that an ongoing balloon project eventually turned into a crisis in Sino-US relations. For China's management and diplomatic bureaucrats, they may be able to arbitrarily end the dynamic zeroing policy in the chaos, but it is difficult to really get out of their closed minds of self-isolation, just like the arrogance of bureaucrats in the late Qing Dynasty.

Of course, if the seriousness of the current crisis is recognized, the balloon incident is nothing to mention, just like a storm in a teacup will soon pass. At the Feb. 17 State of the Union speechIn his State of the Union address on Feb. 7, President Biden has already sent a signal of detente to China, seeking competition rather than conflict, after demonstrating a firm principled stance in defense of democracy. Next, is China's diplomacy capable of quickly resolving the balloon crisis, just like the resolution of the South China Sea plane collision more than 20 years ago, returning to the track of normalizing Sino-US relations, resuming bilateral dialogue and exchanges as soon as possible, and restoring the relationship between the two peoples? Exchanges and exchanges, rebuilding the minimum consensus and mutual trust? This is probably the key to measuring whether China's diplomacy has truly emerged from the epidemic and returned to the international community.